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We study the differences arising from merging predictors in the causal and anti-causal directions using the same data.

We study the differences arising from merging predictors in the causal and anticausal directions using the same data.In particular we study the asymmetries that arise in a simple model where we merge the predictors using one binary variable as target and two continuous variables as predictors.We use Causal Maximum Entropy (CMAXENT) as inductive bias to merge the predictors, however, we expect similar differences to hold also when we use other merging methods that take into account asymmetries between cause and effect.We show that if we observe all bivariate distributions, the CMAXENT solution reduces to a logistic regression in the causal direction and Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA) in the anticausal direction.Furthermore, we study how the decision boundaries of these two solutions differ whenever we observe only some of the bivariate distributions implications for Out-Of-Variable (OOV) generalisation.

In many areas of science, we strive to answer questions that are fundamentally causal in nature.

We study the differences arising from merging predictors in the causal and anti-causal directions using the same data.

We study the differences arising from merging predictors in the causal and anticausal directions using the same data.In particular we study the asymmetries that arise in a simple model where we merge the predictors using one binary variable as target and two continuous variables as predictors.We use Causal Maximum Entropy (CMAXENT) as inductive bias to merge the predictors, however, we expect similar differences to hold also when we use other merging methods that take into account asymmetries between cause and effect.We show that if we observe all bivariate distributions, the CMAXENT solution reduces to a logistic regression in the causal direction and Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA) in the anticausal direction.Furthermore, we study how the decision boundaries of these two solutions differ whenever we observe only some of the bivariate distributions implications for Out-Of-Variable (OOV) generalisation.

We study the differences arising from merging predictors in the causal and anticausal directions using the same data. In particular we study the asymmetries that arise in a simple model where we merge the predictors using one binary variable as target and two continuous variables as predictors. We use Causal Maximum Entropy (CMAXENT) as inductive bias to merge the predictors, however, we expect similar differences to hold also when we use other merging methods that take into account asymmetries between cause and effect. We show that if we observe all bivariate distributions, the CMAXENT solution reduces to a logistic regression in the causal direction and Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA) in the anticausal direction. Furthermore, we study how the decision boundaries of these two solutions differ whenever we observe only some of the bivariate distributions implications for Out-Of-Variable (OOV) generalisation.

We address the problem of inferring the causal direction between two variables by comparing the least-squares errors of the predictions in both possible directions. Under the assumption of an independence between the function relating cause and effect, the conditional noise distribution, and the distribution of the cause, we show that the errors are smaller in causal direction if both variables are equally scaled and the causal relation is close to deterministic. Based on this, we provide an easily applicable algorithm that only requires a regression in both possible causal directions and a comparison of the errors. The performance of the algorithm is compared with various related causal inference methods in different artificial and real-world data sets.

Discovering the causal structure among a set of variables is a fundamental problem in many areas of science. In this paper, we propose Kernel Conditional Deviance for Causal Inference (KCDC) a fully nonparametric causal discovery method based on purely observational data. From a novel interpretation of the notion of asymmetry between cause and effect, we derive a corresponding asymmetry measure using the framework of reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces. Based on this, we propose three decision rules for causal discovery. We demonstrate the wide applicability and robustness of our method across a range of diverse synthetic datasets. Furthermore, we test our method on real-world time series data and the real-world benchmark dataset Tübingen Cause-Effect Pairs where we outperform state-of-the-art approaches.

The inference of the causal relationship between a pair of observed variables is a fundamental problem in science, and most existing approaches are based on one single causal model. In practice, however, observations are often collected from multiple sources with heterogeneous causal models due to certain uncontrollable factors, which renders causal analysis results obtained by a single model skeptical. In this paper, we generalize the Additive Noise Model (ANM) to a mixture model, which consists of a finite number of ANMs, and provide the condition of its causal identifiability. To conduct model estimation, we propose Gaussian Process Partially Observable Model (GPPOM), and incorporate independence enforcement into it to learn latent parameter associated with each observation. Causal inference and clustering according to the underlying generating mechanisms of the mixture model are addressed in this work. Experiments on synthetic and real data demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed approach.